08/19/2025 • by Jonas Kellermeyer
What is the Delphi Method?
Engaging with future foresight and corresponding strategy development is an interesting field of business. However, as in nearly every area of economic activity, it is essential here, too, to have a methodologically trained approach to relevant data. That’s why today we want to introduce you to the so-called Delphi method. What is it all about? How does it lead to useful results, and in what contexts is it generally applied?
What is the Delphi Method?
The Delphi method is a qualitative forecasting and survey technique used in futures research, strategy development, and innovation planning. Its goal is to systematically consolidate expert knowledge in order to generate reliable statements about possible developments, trends, or scenarios.
The method is based on the idea that groups of experts, through a structured and anonymized process, can arrive at better assessments than individuals. Unlike open discussions, the influence of dominant personalities is reduced—every voice carries equal weight.
In several survey rounds, experts first provide their assessments on a specific topic or guiding question. The results are collected, evaluated, and fed back anonymously. Based on this feedback, participants have the opportunity to refine their assessments in subsequent rounds or to revise them entirely. In this way, the group gradually converges toward a consistent picture of the future.
Five exemplary applications of the Delphi Method
The societal sectors in which the Delphi method is employed are very diverse. From political issues to corporate strategies and even the education sector, there are numerous areas of application.
- Technology Forecasting
Companies and research institutes use Delphi surveys to estimate the timing of new technologies entering the market—for example, in the fields of artificial intelligence, robotics, or the energy transition. - Politics and Social Research
Governments or NGOs apply the method to gather expert assessments of societal megatrends (e.g., demographics, climate, migration) and to prepare political courses of action. - Corporate Strategy
In strategic foresight, companies use the Delphi method to evaluate opportunities and risks in global markets and to develop future scenarios for products or business models. - Education and Future Skills
Universities and international organizations such as UNESCO use Delphi studies to identify which competencies will be critical in the coming decades and how education systems can adapt to them. - Healthcare
Delphi surveys help to build consensus on future treatment standards, medical guidelines, or research priorities (e.g., vaccine development).
Conclusion regarding the Delphi Method
The Delphi method is a versatile and proven tool for reducing uncertainty about the future and making collective expertise actionable. Its particular value lies in the structured repetition and process-related anonymity that lead to well-balanced results. Although it can be time-consuming, it is considered one of the most important methods in futures research, as it strikes a balance between scientific rigor and practical relevance. It is definitely a method we don’t want to miss in our methodological repertoire!
About the author
As a communications expert, Jonas is responsible for the linguistic representation of the Taikonauten, as well as for crafting all R&D-related content with an anticipated public impact. After some time in the academic research landscape, he has set out to broaden his horizons as much as his vocabulary even further.
