09/01/2025 • by Jonas Kellermeyer
The Delphi Method in Futures Research
Expert knowledge is indispensable in an increasingly complex world: technological innovations, societal shifts, and global crises shape our daily lives. To remain capable of action in this dynamic environment, organizations need more than just gut feeling: they require well-founded, data- and knowledge-driven analyses to understand developments and to identify future scenarios at an early stage.
One of the most effective methods in futures research is the Delphi method. It brings together the expertise of specialists from different disciplines to generate robust, high-quality forecasts – providing a reliable foundation for strategic decision-making.
What is the Delphi Method?
The Delphi method was developed in the 1950s by the RAND Corporation. Originally intended for evaluating military scenarios, its potential was quickly recognized in civilian research and business contexts as well.
Its core principle is as simple as it is effective:
- Multiple rounds of expert surveys
- Anonymized responses to minimize bias
- Iterative feedback loops to refine assessments over time
The goal is to achieve the most consistent and well-qualified view of future developments possible. This structured approach makes the method a reliable tool for qualitative forecasting in complex fields.
Conducting a Delphi Study
In order to become a standard tool in futures research, it is essential that a concise and canonized procedural description of a prototypical Delphi study, and the corresponding Delphi method is being laid out.
- Definition of the research objective
A clear focus is essential – e.g., “How will AI usage in European companies evolve by 2035?” - Selection of the expert panel
Experts from different disciplines are invited to combine diverse perspectives. - First round of surveys
Open-ended questions gather assessments, hypotheses, and relevant factors. - Evaluation and aggregation
Responses are anonymized, analyzed, and consolidated. - Second round of surveys
Experts receive feedback from the first round and adjust their assessments accordingly. - Consensus building
After two to three rounds, a solid picture of trends, risks, or opportunities emerges.
Areas of Application in Futures Research
That the Delphi method and its associated studies hold a firm place in futures research is beyond question. But what does the concerted use of this tool actually look like? And which different areas of society benefit most significantly from a Delphi study?
- Technology Forecasts
In technology development, the Delphi method is an indispensable tool.
Example: An international consortium uses a Delphi study to analyze when quantum computers will become market-ready and which industries are likely to benefit first. - Politics and Society
Governments and NGOs use Delphi surveys to find answers to key questions:What impact will demographic change have on labor markets?How will climate change transform mobility and energy supply?Which social conflict lines might intensify by 2040? - Innovation and Corporate Strategies
Companies engaged in strategic foresight use the Delphi method to identify market trends and innovation potential.
Example: An automotive manufacturer uses a Delphi study to develop scenarios for electromobility and derives investment decisions for battery technologies from the results. - Education and Future Skills
Educational institutions, such as UNESCO, have used Delphi studies to identify the competencies (“future skills”) that will be crucial in the next 10–20 years. These include critical thinking, digital resilience, intercultural communication, and confident handling of AI. - Healthcare
The method is also gaining importance in healthcare. Delphi studies help develop new medical guidelines, set research priorities, or plan long-term staffing needs.
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Delphi Method
Of course, the Delphi method is no panacea. Accordingly, its strengths – as well as its weaknesses – need to be carefully assessed.
- Strengths
- Broad expert knowledge: The method combines diverse perspectives and areas of expertise.
- Structured consensus-building: Iterative feedback rounds lead to valid, balanced results.
- Flexibility: Applicable in politics, business, research, and education.
- Qualitative depth: Ideal for complex questions without a purely quantitative data basis.
- Time and resource intensity: Coordinating multiple rounds requires careful planning and moderation.
- Dependence on panel quality: The quality and selection of experts strongly influence the validity of the results.
- No absolute prediction: The outcomes are rather heuristic assessments than guaranteed forecasts.
The Delphi Method as a Strategic Tool
In futures research, the Delphi method is considered the gold standard when it comes to complex, interdisciplinary questions. It not only provides a structured framework to reduce business uncertainty but also offers a way to deeply combine creativity with expertise.
Organizations that regularly navigate uncertainty – whether in business, politics, or science – often find the Delphi method to be a suitable tool for preparing strategic decisions early and for embracing change proactively.
Exemplary Case Study: The Future of Work
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.
FAQ regarding the Delphi Method
- What is the difference between the Delphi Method and a traditional survey?
The Delphi Method is iterative, anonymized, and designed for consensus-building — whereas traditional surveys typically provide only a snapshot in time. - How long does a Delphi Study take?
Depending on its complexity, anywhere from a few weeks to several months. - How many experts are needed to conduct a Delphi Study?
Typically, between 15 and 50 participants. What matters most is not the exact number but the diversity and relevance of their expertise. - Is it possible to combine the Delphi Method with the use of AI agents?
Yes — modern approaches use AI to analyze responses more quickly, detect patterns, and accelerate qualitative evaluations.
Conclusion Regarding the Delphi Method in Futures Research
As we have tried to demonstrate in this article, the Delphi method is much more than a scientific procedure — it is a practical tool for anyone who intends to actively shape the future. Especially in futures research, it provides guidance in uncertain times, fosters exchange between disciplines, and builds the foundation for strategic, interdisciplinary decisions.
Whether in technology forecasting, societal scenario planning, or innovation strategies: those who ask the right questions today and systematically harness expert knowledge gain a decisive advantage — and create their own corridors of opportunity.
About the author
As a communications expert, Jonas is responsible for the linguistic representation of the Taikonauten, as well as for crafting all R&D-related content with an anticipated public impact. After some time in the academic research landscape, he has set out to broaden his horizons as much as his vocabulary even further.
