Market and trend analysis in the context of technology transfer

What is a market analysis?
A market analysis systematically examines the size, structure, competitive situation and needs of a defined market. The key elements are
1. market volume and growth (historical and forecast)
2. competitive landscape (key players, market shares, barriers to entry)
3. customer needs and purchasing criteria
4. supply and demand processes.

What is a trend analysis?
A trend analysis aims to identify long-term changes and developments that influence market activity. These include:
1. technological trends (e.g. artificial intelligence, blockchain, biotechnology)
2. socio-demographic trends (ageing population, urbanization)
3. social trends (sustainability, sharing economy)
4. political/regulatory trends (CO₂ regulations, data protection regulations)

What is meant by technology transfer?
The term technology transfer refers to the process by which technical knowledge, patents or prototypes from research institutions (e.g. universities, government laboratories) are transferred to commercial exploitation by companies. Forms of technology transfer are:
1. licensing of patents to industrial companies
2. Spin-offs, in which researchers found their own start-up
3. Research collaborations between companies and universities
4. Purchase of intellectual property (IP) through M&A transactions

A first important aspect of why technology transfer should be considered in any market and trend analysis is the significantly accelerated innovation cycles: whereas product development often used to be sequential - research → prototypes → series production - nowadays you have to be prepared for an emphatically non-consecutive or disruptive process. Through technology transfer, innovative processes or components (e.g. new manufacturing processes, materials, algorithms) are transferred to industrial application much faster. A market analysis that does not take such “external” innovation impulses into account often underestimates the actual speed limit within the respective industry.

Another factor that indicates the importance of technology transfer is the massive expansion of the competitive field. When universities patent new processes and start-ups license these technologies, disruptive market players often emerge - no longer just in Silicon Valley, but now also in the heart of Europe. These newcomers can take significant market share from established providers. A trend analysis must therefore also explicitly recognize technology transfers that cause the emergence of competitors in various niches.

A changing partner and supply network also plays an important role with regard to the central importance of technology transfer in terms of market and trend analyses to be carried out. Today, companies often work in co-creation models with external research partners. Such networks are valuable for early trend forecasts: if, for example, technology scouting reveals that a particular institute is a world leader in photonics materials, companies must decide relatively quickly whether and how they want to enter this newly emerging value chain.

The importance of regulatory framework conditions and corresponding funding programs should also not be underestimated: many government grants (EU Horizon programs, national R&D funding, etc.) are explicitly aimed at technology transfer. The condition for grants of this kind is often that research results are commercialized or published as open source. A market analysis that takes these funding structures into account can help to better assess the barriers to entry for new technologies.

Before a classic market segmentation is carried out, it is important to use technology scouting to identify those research activities and patent applications that have a direct influence on the industry environment. In this respect, a regular look at the relevant sources for technology scouting is extremely worthwhile:
1. patent databases (e.g. Espacenet, Google Patents)
2. scientific publications and conference papers
3. Newsletters from technology transfer institutions (universities, Fraunhofer Institutes)

Once the most important data has been sifted through, it must be organized in order to facilitate valid decision-making. For this purpose, it is worth organizing the data according to the respective technology readiness level (TRL). The respective trends can be classified in a relatively simple matrix: the market maturity (TRL) is shown on the X-axis and the market potential (forecast turnover) is shown on the Y-axis. Technologies that are at medium TRLs but have a high market potential are considered “emerging innovations” and should be monitored particularly closely as part of the trend analysis.

Research results are only really relevant if they can be successfully transferred into commercially viable applications. For this reason, a well-founded market analysis surveys both ongoing funding projects (“What budget and which partners are available in the EU ‘Horizon Europe’ program or in the national R&D funding program?”) as well as licensing and spin-offs (“Which university has licensed which technology?”) The specific value of the respective technology can often be deduced from the license amount and the cooperation partners.

The actual market analysis is then carried out on the basis of the technology insights collected up to this point. This involves a market segmentation according to the degree of technology adoption, in which a distinction is made between early adopters, i.e. companies that are already working with transfer technologies in pilot projects (e.g. start-ups, innovation labs), early majority, i.e. SMEs that consciously participate in funding initiatives in order to integrate the first transfer technologies, and a late majority, consisting of traditional OEMs that only enter the market after successful market penetration.

The following step involves an explicit assessment of the competition, i.e. a competitive analysis. The main aim here is to obtain a coherent picture of the situation with competitors and rivals.
Incumbents vs. disruptors: Traditional providers that operate their own in-house R&D are faced with disruptive start-ups that use innovations created through technology transfer from universities and agencies.
Cooperation networks: Drawing partner diagrams (e.g. in the form of mind maps) that depict suppliers, university institutes and potential licensees can be particularly useful.

Based on the technology mapping and market segmentation, possible future scenarios can now be outlined, which lead to a trend forecast and allow scenario planning:

“Technology turbo” scenario: Transfer technologies run faster than expected, the market for a disruptive innovation (e.g. quantum computing) opens up in 5 years instead of 10. Consequence: Traditional business models come under pressure - companies must launch pilot projects early on in order not to lose touch.

“Regulatory brake” scenario: Strict data protection and security requirements delay technology transfers (e.g. for AI applications in the healthcare sector). Consequence: Market drivers adjust their roadmaps and focus on less heavily regulated use cases for the time being.

What has been said so far will now be brought to life using three exemplary practical examples, so that it is possible to get an exemplary picture of market and trend analysis in the context of technology transfer.

1. Automotive industry & battery research
A battery research institute licenses innovative solid-state battery technologies to several medium-sized battery manufacturers. A market analysis that does not take this transfer into account would underestimate the electric car market. By integrating this transfer data, OEMs can adapt their production and purchasing strategy and select cooperation partners to secure supply chains.

2. biotechnology & healthcare market
A university laboratory is developing a new antibody screening process. Various pharmaceutical start-ups license this process to produce new immunotherapies. A trend analysis identifies this technology transfer at an early stage and predicts how the demand for biotechnology services will change and which supplier industries (e.g. cleanroom technology) will benefit.

3. Digital agriculture (AgriTech)
Research institutions transfer drone-based monitoring system for precise field analysis to agricultural start-ups. Market analysts recognize that sensor technology and predictive analytics services for farms will grow into a billion-dollar market within a few years. Agricultural machinery manufacturers are responding with their own partnerships and service packages.

If you want to position yourself in a truly future-proof way, there are a few points that, if you take to heart, will give you a good outlook on what is yet to come: on the one hand, it is about implementing early technology scouting. By implementing a dedicated “technology radar” that continuously evaluates patent databases, scientific publications and funding data, potential technology transfers can be identified before competitors use them.
There is a certain need to establish interdisciplinary competences. This means involving not only market and business analysts but also legal experts (patent law, license agreements) and even R&D managers trained in the humanities and social sciences in the course of the analysis processes. In this way, it is possible to obtain a holistic picture of the opportunities and risks of technology transfers and to determine possible consequences from different perspectives. Cooperation is an indispensable part of forward-looking business practice on so many levels. A direct line to various experts makes it possible to directly shape any developments.
Whenever it comes to the current state of technology, the topos of networking is not far away. Cooperation is an indispensable part of forward-looking business practice on so many levels. Having a direct line to various experts makes it possible to directly shape any developments.
Holding regular strategy workshops is particularly well suited to enabling the entire workforce to demonstrate their effectiveness. A good strategy workshop, meanwhile, is characterized by an adequate trivialization of groundbreaking insights that are ultimately translated in such a way that everyone is able to implement them in their respective areas.
Last but not least, we should talk about the proverbial elephant in the room: it's about investments - especially those in flexibility and agility. Cutting edge and avant-garde have their price. In order to generate profits, it is important to view R&D as an endurance discipline in which quick wins are the exception. This also and especially applies to well thought-out market and trend analyses. Those who take a long-term view of developments in their respective industry will also gain important insights over time that can make the difference between good and brilliant.

All of the above illustrates a central aspect: market and trend analysis in the age of technology transfer is more than just data processing. It requires a proactive, networked approach that systematically makes knowledge transfers between research and industry visible. Only those who identify technology transfers at an early stage, embed them in the market structure identified as relevant in each case and translate their implications into tangible scenarios can produce valid forecasts. Companies that do not use such a methodology risk being caught off guard and hit hard by disruptive waves of innovation. Conversely, a well-founded integration of technology transfer data offers the opportunity not only to track development trends, but also to play a decisive role in shaping them and thus secure a sustainable competitive advantage.

In all of this, having a strong innovation partner at your side is half the battle.